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Esc odds: 🇪🇺 XTRA Odds: The Black Mamba rise as Daði Freyr falls

Gustavo RabirerosAutor da publicação: Gustavo Rabireros

A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fifth favourites to win. They have odds of 6/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €6 if Måneskin do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Spain. Blas Cantó finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.

How do these work?

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.

Odds Analysis: 11 May

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

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ESCplus

The rollercoaster ride we saw yesterday at the top of the bookmakers’ winning odds for the Eurovision Song Contest is far from over. The only question really is how many horses are in this race to victory… After yesterday’s rehearsals, the leading group is splitting up ever so slightly. Time to have a closer look with XTRA Odds!

Cyprus closing in on the top five with Elena Tsagrinou

A quick example: Currently, Lithuania are noted as ninth favourites to win. They have odds of 25/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €25 if The Roop do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Georgia. Tornike Kipiani finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.

Shortening and drifting

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.



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